Forecast-based Action: How Weather Forecasts and Community Participation Saved Lives in Barhabise

Since 2022, we have been working with our partners—the Community Self-Reliance Centre, Scott Wilson Nepal, Save the Children Nepal, governments, communities, and experts—to develop a Forecast-based Action (FbA) system specifically for landslides through the European Union-supported Pratibaddha project. Our approach relies on weather forecasts provided by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), ranging from seasonal outlooks to real-time updates, ensuring that those at risk have time to act. However, while forecasts are essential, they are not enough on their own—community involvement remains critical.

In Nepal, settlements are divided into three categories: CAT I (low risk), CAT II (medium risk), and CAT III (high risk). These categories are based on a geohazard Assessment conducted as per the Technical Guideline for Field Investigation of Settlements Affected by Landslides of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA). Heavy rainfall is the main trigger for landslides. However, because predicting when and where a disaster will occur is difficult, FbA integrates local knowledge and monitoring to strengthen decision-making.

A Community on Alert: How FbA Protected the Settlement of Sirise

August 2023 was challenging for the residents of Sirise, a CAT II settlement in Barhabise. Within just a few days, they experienced two devastating landslides. But thanks to the FbA system, they were prepared.

On 11 August, DHM issued a special bulletin predicting heavy rainfall in Bagmati Province for the next three days. Soon after, an Impact-Based Forecast (IBF) indicated a risk score of 6—meaning serious impacts were expected in Barhabise. Acting on this warning, Barhabise Municipality sent SMS alerts urging communities to stay safe and vigilant.

Just two days later, on 13 August, the first landslide struck, forcing four families to evacuate. While it wasn't a major disaster, it was a wake-up call. Then, on 16 August, a second, much larger landslide hit, destroying homes and displacing ten more families. Thankfully, because of early warnings and active community monitoring, no lives were lost.

One crucial moment came when a member of the Community Disaster Management Committee (CDMC) noticed falling stones in Sirise just before the major landslide on 16 August. Their quick action—alerting the community and coordinating with local officials—helped ensure families were evacuated to safer ground.

Debak Basnet, a 35-year-old CDMC member and an Early Warning Task Force representative, shared his experience: "I remember that day vividly. Just ten minutes before the Sirise landslide on 16 August 2023, I was on the phone, calling residents and urging them to move to safer ground. After the landslide in Mathilo Sirise on 13 August, I was deeply concerned about what might happen next. We had an agreement with the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) focal person and other municipal officers. Whenever we received a 24-hour alert from DHM, we had to meet with the at-risk communities within an hour to discuss preparedness. But this time, the landslide struck without any rainfall the day before. It was a stark reminder that disasters can happen even when we least expect them, and we must always be ready."

The municipality played a vital role in swiftly coordinating evacuation efforts, setting up temporary shelters, and helping families move their belongings. Public announcements were also made in nearby vulnerable settlements, ensuring that more communities were aware of the risks and prepared to act if needed.

How FbA Makes a Difference

1. Risk Communication

• DHM issued timely weather alerts, shared via the Barhabise IBF Viber group.
• The municipality sent SMS warnings to at-risk communities, making sure the message reached those in danger.
• Together, they crafted clear and actionable advisories based on forecast data and early action plans.

2. Risk Monitoring

• The first landslide heightened community awareness, making people more vigilant.
• The CDMC played a key role in identifying warning signs—like falling stones—and swiftly communicating risks through their network.
• Continuous monitoring helped spot environmental cues that signalled an imminent landslide, giving residents time to act.

3. Safe Evacuation

• Families at risk were moved to safer locations before disaster struck.
• The municipality led coordination efforts, ensuring an organized and efficient evacuation process.

4. Raising Awareness

• Public announcements and weather advisories helped residents understand the risks and take precautions.
• The back-to-back landslides reinforced the importance of preparedness, making Sirise residents more resilient to future monsoons.

Lessons from Barhabise: The Power of Preparedness

The experience in Sirise highlights why FbA is so crucial for landslide-prone areas. By using DHM forecasts, engaging local governments, and empowering communities, FbA saved lives and minimized damage. The coordinated efforts in August 2023 demonstrated the power of early warnings, effective risk communication, and community-driven monitoring.

With climate change increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, proactive disaster preparedness is more important than ever. The success of FbA in Barhabise proves that when forecasts are paired with local knowledge and swift action, communities stand a far better chance of staying safe.

As we move forward with the Pratibaddha III project in Western Nepal, let's continue strengthening these life-saving systems—because being prepared can mean the difference between devastation and survival.